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Previous Article | · | copyright notice | · | Next Article |
Survey Judges Faith Today and Tomorrow
Copyright 2004 by Gretchen Passantino
Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 04:39 PM ESTAccording to a new Barna Research Group survey, although American religious belief as a whole has not changed much in the last decade, features of that faith should alert Christian leaders, churches, and ministries to problem areas, and the demographics of belief will change significantly in the next 20 years.
The survey, dated March 19, 2004, was conducted by the well-known California market research firm that has tracked Christian cultural trends and statistics since 1984. Founder George Barna, author of many books, commenting about what the survey reveals about the content and fervency of American belief said, “Frankly, the message . . . is frustrating to me. To realize that so few Americans are genuinely following Christ and that there are so many millions of people who think of themselves as Christians but are ignorant of what the Scriptures teach, well, it’s upsetting.”
The poll indicates that over the last decade few people have altered their spiritual perspectives, but an analysis of the demographic and religious subsets of the population showed “huge differences.” Findings include, (1) 87% claim that religious faith is very important in their life today; (2) Although 60% believe the Bible is totally accurate in everything, only 44% “strongly agree” with the statement; (3) 55% believe that being a good person qualifies one for a place in heaven; (4) Only half (50%) consider themselves “absolutely committed” to Christianity; and (5) 44% believe Jesus committed sins during his earthly life.
Three different groups of Christians were distinguished in the poll: Evangelical Christians are a more conservative subset of Born Again Christians, and Notional Christians are those who say they are not born again or evangelical, but are affiliated with a Christian church. According to the survey, although “Christians” comprise 77% of the American population (with atheist or agnostic at 12% and other faiths at 11%), most are Notional Christians (39%), the second largest is Born Again Christians (31%), and the smallest segment is of the most conservative group, the Evangelical Christians (7%).
Some of the most significant news is for those concerned with reaching and keeping in good spiritual health the youngest adult generation, “Baby Busters” (ages 20-38). The survey shows that this generation “was generally less comfortable with biblical beliefs.” Baby Busters were 18% less likely than other adults to consider their faith as very important in their lives. They were twice as likely to describe themselves as atheist or agnostic.
Prehaps the most startling finding is the projection about demographics and Christian faith into the next 45 years. Using Census data to project into the future, Barna adjusted these poll findings to the projected changes in ethnic demographics. According to Barna, the Census Bureau “expects. . . . that the white population will drop from 69.4% of the population to 50.1%; blacks will increase from 12.7% to 14.6%; Hispanics will rise from 13% to 24.4%; and Asians will jump from 3.8% to 8%.” What does this mean for Christian faith? Barna combines his poll results with the Census projections and predicts that Hispanic representation among Born Again Christians will jump from 10% in 2004 to 19.9% in 2050; Asians from 1.3% to 2.7%; and blacks from 15.2% to 18.6%. “The big loser in share will be white born again adults who are expected to plummet from 72.9% of the born again pie to just 55.6% in 2050.”
General observations from the polling data tell us some trends that should be worrisome to Christian leaders. Barna commented, “People’s religious behavior changes more frequently than does their belief set. Westerners are more active in religious practices today than they have been in the past, but they still possess the same unorthodox blend of biblical and non-biblical views that have fostered the confusing and inconsistent theological contexts that permeate the West.” Barna also noted that only a minority of people hold their beliefs very seriously or “intensely.” “Less than half of the public is strongly convinced of the position they hold on most of the core spiritual perspectives we evaluate,” Barna said, adding, “For instance, although three out of five adults say they believe the Bible is totally accurate in the principles it teaches, only two out of every five strongly hold that view.” Barna concluded, “If you examine the intensity of people’s religious beliefs, the clear pattern is that there is not much that Americans believe with unshakable confidence. Most beliefs are loosely held – they are guesses more than convictions – which explains why such beliefs do not seem to have much impact on people’s choices.”
The complete report and poll statistics are available at Religious Beliefs Remain Constant But Subgroups Are Quite Different.
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